01/12/2026

The first technology company with a US$5trn market cap, representing around 18% of the S&P 500. According to a 2025 Bloomberg report, Nvidia's moat is eroding as Google continues to design custom Arm TPUs and aims to escape Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem that locks in clients & designers. Nvidia's largest customers utilize Arm's RISC chip architecture. No wonder Nvidia attempted to acquire Arm in 2020 for approximately US$40bn. High sales dependency (60%) on a handful of hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft & Meta Platforms), which are actually turning into competitors, is Nvidia’s major risk.​

The US government taking a 10% equity stake in Intel caught me by surprise. With a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, at the helm and a major restructuring plan on the way, Intel seems to be adopting a back-to-basics business model. Intel shows great potential to return to its former glory days. With Intel 18A chip production set to begin in FY2026Q1 and several partners, such as SoftBank (2%), Nvidia (5%), taking equity stakes, there might be hope. If AMD made a successful comeback in 2017, Intel could too.

Arm Holdings: a great business model, but too richly priced for me according to my FCFE valuation model with a US$19 fair value. The stock has been taking hits in the months of Sept-Nov 2025 and plummeted nearly 30% to a US$114 market price. Arm earns a royalty on every chip sold by its licensees, such as Qualcomm & Apple. Arm is a great example of a great business that lags industry sales with FY2025 sales of only US$4.01bn, while its customers record sales>US$100bn. Customer concentration risk, no control over the China subsidiary, & RISC-V open source pose a threat. The main reason for the large disparity between FCFE fair value and the market price is RISC-V’s wide adoption globally, as is evident by Qualcomm’s takeover of Ventana Micro Systems, a leader in the RISC-V space, in December 2025.​

Microsoft is like a beacon of trust and stability. The Windows 11 adoption rate is >50% worldwide. Microsoft is like Coca-Cola at any given moment, its products are in use. With its Office 365 flagship product & CoPilot gaining traction. Moreover, Windows 11 commands a 72% PC market share in 2025. My FCFE valuation of US$489 indicates the company is fairly valued compared to the 12/18/2025 market price of US$483. Great company fundamentals, slightly higher Beta of 1.1 compared to the market Beta of 1. Strong cash balances and a growing Azure cloud business segment (40% of FY2025 sales) clearly demonstrate Microsoft's ambition to provide cost-effective datacenter solutions to meet the AI demands of its customers.